Saturday, October 4, 2008

Sarah Palin Baby Name Generator

Click here to find out your name if your momma is Sarah Palin.

One of the most important speeches you haven't seen this year

This happened about two months ago and I saw it just the other day. I remember quick mentions in the news but what he says is worth watching. The above video is of the AFL-CIO's Richard Trumka on Racism and Obama.

What he says re-inforces an idea that I have had for awhile and I believe I have read some diaries to this effect. I believe that the choice that all Americans face on November 4th, for the first time in American History, Americans Black and White will have the choice to vote for a Black or White Candidate for President. The fact that we are faced with this simple choice changes America in perpetuity.

I believe that Barack Obama on the ticket changes our collective national psychology and view points on race in this country. Black Americans, as well as Americans of all colors, now can tell their children, and internally for themselves know that even the highest job in the land could be theirs. The mental barriers that exist in our minority cultures from years of systematic and social discrimination have reached a tipping point in the lives, the inner self-worth and dreams of our African American and minority brothers and sisters. This simple choice.

However, I know, this isn't anything revolutionary. But the unseen and unheard side of this equation is that this simple choice doesn't just socially enfranchise minorities in America. White Americans are also faced with this choice. And no matter if you live in an Urban Area and have voted for Black politicians for years, or never had an African American on your ballot. I think the mere fact that White Americans conservative and liberal, racist or not, will be forced to make a decision in the voting booth will move forward the cause of equality in this country.

No matter the outcome of this election, no matter if a white racist enters a voting booth and votes against Obama BECAUSE he is black, people will still be faced with making that decision. Because we are all human, we all have to make a decision on election day, and even the racist who will not vote for Obama because he is black will still have to cross that line, make that decision, and even if it is for a nano-second, contemplate the possiblity of voting for an African American for President.

I am not naive to believe that this will be some sort of magic elixir for the ills of racism in America, but there is no escaping the choice in one's mind of being forced to make that decision. Even if you don't vote, I imagine a person would think about it.

Consequently, I think that the collective national psyche and our collective viewpoints on racism will progress forward tremendously because of the mere fact that ALL Americans are confronted with this choice on November 4th.

Sunday, August 3, 2008

Jeff Harris's Ads

"Real Democrat"


Margaret Donnelly's Ads

"What it Takes"

"Where They've Been"

"All my Life"

Chris Koster's Ads

"Standing Up for Everyone"

"All Prosecutor"

"Walking the Walk"

There are two versions of this spot, this one features St. Louis County Prosecutor Bob McCullough, the other is a just a generic voice over.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

On Chief Mokwa

I didn't have any great dissatisfaction with the job Joe Mokwa did. Now does our police department have issues? You bet. But Mokwa was decent cheif and knew when his time was up, unlike some fire chiefs we know. Kudos, it's someone else's time to sit in the hotseat, let's hope Mayor Slay can pick someone who would be willing to work with the Prosecutor, Courts and Alderman. It wouldn't hurt the mayor if that person also happened to be African-American. I wouldn't think I would have to say that but after he passed on the freebee of endorsing Barack Obama and scoring some points in a community where he isn't quite popular I just have to mention it.

Attorney General Race, scenario 2

Still think Koster wins right now but it is hard to say... I also see a scenario where Margaret Donnelly wins. Jeff Harris's campaign for all media purposes, has been nothing but a hit job on Chris Koster. Harris has the least money so I really don't see his ability to sell himself AND take down Koster gaining critical mass. However, I could see his internet Koster hit jobs hurting Koster enough that Democratic voters look elseware away from Koster's beautiful spots (however not enough base red meat and too general election oriented) and find Margaret Donnelly on the airwaves who has solid spots and the money to create more market penetration than Jeff Harris. I guess we'll find out in a week.
Below is Margaret Donnelly's closing spot and I think best one:

I will start putting up everyones spots soon so we can get a comprehensive look at their media campaigns and analyze how much money they are spending.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Anheuser-Busch InBev Deal

I have waited to make any commentary about the sale of AB to InBev. I am disheartened by the sale and really have to say that the real boob in the whole deal is August Busch IV. I really don't care how much money he made on the deal even if it made him the richest man in the world (it didn't) but he just sold away his birthright and 5 generations of an American and St. Louis Institution. Well, he is a little rich kid who never had to work for anything in his life I can see how he screwed the pooch on this one.

However, in his defense, I really think the person who should be at fault, the person who made this all possible is August the III. He is the one that I think really laid the groundwork for his son to screw it all up.

Now the rest of us are just going to have to wait and see what happens to all the little guys. As I read in an article, one AB employee said "If you're near the beer, you're in the clear." Which I believe is true, It is the corporate overlap, HR, Marketing, Management, etc. where the blood will flow like Budweiser from an open tap. I heard on TV that they plan to do it over the course of 5 years.

Prepare yourself for the upcoming Summer Olympics

Saturday Night Live, some call it a comedy, looking back some could call it prophecies?
Waiting in anticipation for more freaks of nature, I mean science, to break some world records.

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Democratic AG Race Prediction

The 2008 Democratic Primary races in Missouri are considerably much more tame than our last Presidential year primary with Bob and Claire duking it out. The biggest fireworks we will see this year for Democrats is the race for Attorney General. I am sure that my analysis of this race is neither groundbreaking or dynamically different than others. I predict Chris Koster will win the Democratic Nomination for Attorney General in Missouri. Chris Koster is the former Republican State Senator of Cass County (just south of Kansas City).

here is Koster's First Spot:

I believe that Koster wins because of money. Running statewide requires a lot of money to put your name, story and message in front of the voters. There is no doubt Koster has that, having raised well over one million and on his last report, legislative district committees, which are allowed to contribute up to ten times the legal amount and spend ten times the legal amount in-kind, had already in-kind bought $250K worth of TV media. I really don't forsee Margaret or Jeff Harris having much more of a media buy than that amount.

This means that Koster is going to be up sooner (he's up now) and with more points than the others. I really just don't forsee Margaret or Jeff Harris having enough money to gain critical mass on TV and Koster wins by default that the electorate knows more about him than the others. In another post I will also posit a less likely scenario where Koster does not win.

Friday, June 27, 2008

In the Navy!!!

Heard from multiple sources that CNN is going to out Matt Blunt soon. That's right "out" as in "out" as in he is GAY! It was in the emails. That's why he stepped down. They never should have canned that attorney, looks like he sank Matt Blunt's Battleship. BOOOYAAA!!!

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Flashback: The Onion CAN see the future...

Stl Oracle has some serious future predicting competition from the guys over at the Onion:

WASHINGTON, DC–Mere days from assuming the presidency and closing the door on eight years of Bill Clinton, president-elect George W. Bush assured the nation in a televised address Tuesday that "our long national nightmare of peace and prosperity is finally over."

Monday, April 7, 2008

Interesting data

This is a link to a site where you can make a graph of the page views (per million) of each candidates website. Tried to use their html code to make visible on this site but it is not working. I wonder what kind of indicator this could be of support, or momentum. I still have to analyze the numbers and timeline but I instantly thought that this is somehow significant.

Saturday, April 5, 2008

Hillary v. Obama Part II

I was reserving this second post to write about how it was mathematically and politically impossible for Hilary to win the nomination, barring a political miracle (i.e. Obama pulls a McGreevey). But since the stories about the clintons tax returns....I have veered in a new direction.

One of the things that I could not wrap my mind around for the past 6-8 months is why Hillary Clinton is running for President? I have been asking myself this question for a while now in the context of the thinking based around this thought: "What more could two people really ask for out of America?" And with the release of their tax returns which shows earnings of $109 million since 2000. That is right. $109 million, DOLLARS in the past 7 years. That is an average of just over $15 million a year. Talk about cashing in, hey, I don't blame them for it, not one bit. There isn't wrong with making a buck. However, as a regular working joe, I do have a problem with a couple who has lived in a governor's mansion, then THE WHITE HOUSE, for eight years (conventionally the longest time one could realistically live in the most coveted house in the country). After which they cash in on to the degree that they now are in the top one hundredth of the top one percent wealthiest people in the country, essentially at the least, the 0.09%, at the most, 0.01% richest people in the country. For perspective's sake 1% of 300,000,000 population of the U.S. is 3,000,000 people. They are in the top 3,000,000 richest people in the U.S.

O.k. Let's Digest that for a minute.

Now, let's take a look at who these people are:

1.) Bill Clinton: former four term (2 years) governor of a state and two term President (he maxed out on that!)
2.) First lady of a State, First Lady of the Greatest Country Ever (For what it is worth, I am actually wearing a flag right now, and it is sexy) then a Senator of NEW YORK! The Empire State, need we say anymore.

So the only questions about these two people I have left is: "Who the hell do they think they are, that they believe that they should go BACK to the WHITE HOUSE for 4-to-8 more years making it a total of 16 years, with a over a hundy million in between? How much is enough? Why the hell can't they ride off into the sunset and just be friggin' grateful. A large percentage (waiting on the polling results, come on Gallup!) of Americans would be enormously satisfied with a fraction of the cash or a fraction of the notoriety or a mix of both, would retire satisfied. Again, Who the Hell do they think they are??? Royalty?

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Kevin Gunn, Sucker!

Recently, the Open 15th District Senate Race was looking good for Democrats. Successful Attorney, former aide to Dick Gephart, Kevin Gunn had raised around $200,000 for the seat before the GOP even had a candidate. Things were not looking good for the GOP. So they decided to do something about this pending travesty. Matt Blunt offered Kevin Gunn a spot on Missouri's Public Service Commission. What? The PSC is one of the most coveted appointments in all of Missouri State Government. The terms last six years (I think, but it could be four) and pay $90K+ a year. yummy. And Kevin said yes. So as filing came to a close, guess what, no Kevin Gunn. Thankfully word got out and two candidates filed to run before filing closed.

So Kevin was waiting for that plum job. However, it looks like Kevin didn't really understand the process. He needed a letter of sponsorship from his State Senator, the GOP Mike Gibbons, which he got. He had to be approved by the Senate Gubernatorial Appointments Committee, which he got, then approved by the whole of the Senate. Here is where Kevin got suckered, bigtime.

He had pissed off his buddies the Democrats, and does anybody really think that Matt Blunt was going to give one of the most plum assignments to a peon like Kevin Gunn??? No friggin' way! Gibbons yanked his sponsorship letter because he said the Democrats were gearing up to filibuster the appointment. And like that, poof, Kevin got did.

I was really wondering what was going to happen in this situation. I knew that the sponsorship letter was not binding, I was also interested in how far he would make it. For what it is worth, they suckered him longer than I thought. I figured the moment filing closed Gibbons would yank the letter and be done with him. At least they let him down easy and made it look like it was all those big bad Democrats and their filibusters that did him in. Since when have Senate Repubs been afraid of a Dem. Filibuster, anyone ever heard of a PQ? oh yeah, The Senate GOP has. And Mike Gibbons really went to bat for his man, whoo, man is he a fighter or what? His word is like gold too. If i were to trust anybody with my political career it would definitely be Mike. Any body have his phone number??? Not to mention that the only news I could find on Kevin Gunn's public throat slashing was only reported in the St. Joseph News-Press, AS A BLURB!

UPDATE: I missed this posting in the Political fix. to quote Sen. Gibbons from article "Despite pulling the plug today, Gibbons said he’ll still try to get Gunn on the PSC board."-------yeah, right.

Sunday, March 30, 2008

Ballpark Village Fiasco

The recent collapse of Centene deciding to opt out of building its HQ in St. Louis Downtown ballpark village, a.k.a. the downtown quarry, has been the most recent and largest setback for the building of ANYTHING in Ballpark village. And is a major setback for the City of St. Louis. The Centene HQ was going to bring 1200 jobs into the city and probably kickstart the whole deal. So lets analyze the situation and start pointing fingers, because quite frankly it is time for people to start getting pissed.

Two years and two baseball seasons have gone by one bringing a world championship home and the Cardinals cannot finish the job here in St. Louis. It is my understanding that the Cardinals own the land and have contracted with a Baltimore based Cordish Company to develop the property. So what is the deal? Everyone in town knows that this is possibly the best real estate in the entire state of Missouri. Not only that, the City of St. Louis and the State of Missouri have secured tax credits/funding of $100 million dollars, and Centene was set to receive an additional $70 million dollars for the construction of their building alone. I know that the market for real estate, lending and development is tanking, but $170 million is a lot of money. If you gave me $170 million and said build something, I am betting I could put up a fairly good set of buildings. Heck they could fill out the site in phases, build one or two buildings rent them out. They will be rented out, this is the best baseball town in America. St. Louisans will definitely rent offices, buy lofts and patronize retail and commercial space ACROSS THE STREET FROM BUSCH STADIUM no matter what the economy is doing.

Ok, now for the fun part, lets start pointing fingers:
The players-- Cardinals, Cordish, Centene, City of St. Louis, State of Missouri

Let's start with the biggest loser in this situation, the City of St. Louis and the State of Missouri. The City and State was on a tax dollar giveaway for this thing. Bigtime. They already helped finance the Stadium, taking political heat from around the State to get something done with out even mucking up the process with really any kinds of rules or restrictions. I give them a pass, they bucked up (our money) quite liberally without much of a guarentee in return, save perhaps that the Cardinals would have to build something nice. I don't think that is really too much to ask for, given that we have already helped pay for the new stadium, which was also unnecessary (the Old Busch could have had quite a few more years in her).

So that leaves us the St. Louis Cardinals, Cordish and Centene.

Centene I also give a pass too. They as far as I could tell wanted to build a HQ bringing 1200 jobs to St. Louis to Ballpark Village.

This leaves us with the real culprits: the St. Louis Cardinals and Cordish Co.
From what I hear from people working around this deal is that Cordish is the big hold up in this whole process. I don't really know any details why, and I know the economy is bad right now, but $170 million in public financing should be enough to secure some kind of loans. There has to be some bank out there that is willing to say "hmmm, $170 million that is one heck of a down payment, here's some money! now start building." I know the financing for a project like this is actually ridiculously more complicated, but we are not reinventing the wheel here people. Deals like this have been done in the past. So what is the hold up (not like we will ever find out from the Post-Dispatch press release aggregator/newspaper)?

Now for the beloved St. Louis Cardinals. They have to shoulder the blame also. Our out of town owners have asked for us all to chip in so that we can enjoy our baseball in a brand new facility and consequently, increase the value of the team by hundreds of millions of dollars. So when they sell the team they can pocket that money and we get to pay higher ticket prices. Does that sound like a fair deal to you? I bet this would be a lot more fair if, perhaps, they had to actually spend some money building a thing called Ballpark Village in the mud hole that is currently next to the stadium. But if that part of the deal falls through, (where would they get that idea....Kiel/Savis/Scottrade and the infamous we'll renovate Kiel Auditorium deal...still worthless) they would be off scot-free to make a ton of money selling the team.

So let's sum up the situation, the Cardinals don't want this on their hands anymore, it is too hard for Cordish Co., Centene needs an HQ and can't wait around, and us the citizens bucking up a lot of lucre for this want our god-damned ball park village. I wonder who isn't going to get what they want?

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Villa NOT running for Senate!

State Rep Tom Villa is NOT running for the 5th District State Senate Seat as I guessed earlier. So the question is what IS he running for? He has $190K in the bank....

Let's run through some scenarios:

1.) Villa, the notorious prankster, could just not be running for anything, it all could be a big joke! However, $190K, of which $165K of his own money is a lot of work and money lost in accrued interest for a joke. This is the least likely scenario in my book.

2.) I think Mr. Villa is going to use that cash as seed money for a larger campaign. But what could he run for? Let's look at what we know:
A. He is 63 years old.
B. He comes from one of the longest standing political dynasties in St. Louis City Politics.
C. He has been President of the Board of Alderman and has run unsuccessfully for Mayor.

Take these into consideration and we see a man who has been successful in politics has been an Alderman, State Representative, Majority Whip and Floor Leader in the State House, ran for Treasurer, President of the Board of Alderman and failed in a bid for Mayor. Since he is 63 years old, how many campaigns does the old boy have left in him, not many, unless he is related to John McCain. So for one of his last campaigns what is Tom going to run for? State Senate is a moderate promotion, but most likely he will still be in the minority? His pension is probably set and being a State Senator isn't that much a promotion. So what does Tom do?

Why not pull a big prank, keep any white candidates out of the Senate Race, keep the seat black, earn some goodwill in the black community, who is not that much of a fan of Mayor Slay these days and run for Mayor. Think about it, what black candidate is going to run against the mayor? Lewis Reed, not enough cash right now and he just got in as President of the Board. Mike McMillan, word is Mike wants a coronation rather than a streetfight to win room 200.

So Tom Villa runs for Mayor, hurts the mayor in his base in South City and wins the North Side as the Not Slay guy running for Mayor. The only question is can Mike McMillan restrain himself from running in a race between two southside politicians? No matter what, I think Tom Villa is going to run for Mayor.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Racism and the Democratic Party

I have already made a post about "the Speech" however there are repercussions for the Obama campaign by making "the Speech" in lieu of doing what pretty much every other politician in this country would have done, a.k.a. the smart and politically convenient action, throwing the preacher under the bus.

I read this article in today and it made me realize, as someone who grew up in South City why this is damaging. Many of these working class whites racism is different from the Country Club Racism one encounters among more educated whites, and in the conservative media.

The South City/working class white racism seems (in my very inexpert opinion) to be based on economic competition, cultural tensions between people living in close proximity to each other. The Country Club racism is bred more through ignorance and the Ronald Reagan "welfare queens driving Cadillacs" stereotypes, people who would never utter the n-word yet think all their tax dollars are lining the pockets of people living in the ghetto the conservative Southern Strategy still at work.

No matter either of these racist persuasions, the comments of Rev. Wright give racists the excuse to say why they WON'T vote for Obama. The folks in the article never would have told that reporter that they wouldn't vote for Obama because he is black, but the anti-white and anti-American comments are the perfect copout (don't give me a lecture about Black Liberation Theology either, it is not going to change these folks minds). Some people would say that these folks aren't voting for the Democratic Party no matter what, the country club racists yes, but working class? But the first time that the problem of racism in the Democratic Party crossed my mind as a problem is after Ohio and I heard exit polling results on CNN about how 20% of voters cited race (Q:"race of candidate was important to you?") as a factor in determining their choice and that 60% of those respondents were voted for Hillary, who won by a ten point spread (54% to 44%) with 76% of the turnout being white, winning 64% of those white voters.

What we see in these numbers are white voters voting for Hillary/against Obama admittedly based on race , at least in part. This is going to be problematic in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. These states are not only geographic neighbors but share many of the same demographics. AND they now have the Rev. Wright excuse that they aren't the ones throwing the first racially charged stone.

Best Burgers in St. Louis Gone Forever.

Dooley's Pub, best burgers in St. Louis hands down, closed their doors on St. Patrick's Day last Monday. I don't know where I'll get lunch downtown any more. Article in the Post here.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Obama: The Speech

(Disclosure: I am a full fledged Obama supporter)

We have all heard about in the news last few days about the amazing speech Obama gave on race. The media really can't stop proclaiming how great it was, yet they really don't explain why. They play a few choice sound-bytes from it but stop short of actually telling anyone what it was about.

Why this speech was important (and different from the politics we are all so used to):

He didn't blame this on anyone, he didn't point fingers, he didn't throw anyone under the bus, he didn't disavow his minister (even though everyone in the world would have understood, given his comments). He made picked up an underlying theme that nobody, especially politicians, likes to talk about: Racism in America. But he didn't do it like any other politician previously has. He explained to the white folks that there is racism against black Americans and they don't feel too kindly about it. He spoke of racial tensions in his own bi-racial family. But then he did something that I've never heard a Black politician do, he told black people about how white people feel some policies are unfair, affirmative action, economic and class tensions broken along racial lines, etc.

Politically genius, not to mention courageous. This guy just turned a major campaign gaffe into a conversation about the racial problems we have to solve in this country. And the Media who was ready to drag this juicy story on and on has to shut up about it, save Rush Limbaugh. That is why they are all speechless. In one reserved, quiet speech Barack Obama changed the national conversation about race from a militant black preacher to how this problem belongs to all of us. Hillary Clinton in her dreams could never accomplish such a feat.

Villa for Senate?

Is State Rep Tom Villa running for Senate? His campaign committee reflects that he is, he has loaned himself $165K. So why would one speculate that he may be running for something else?

1. He hasn't filed yet. And yes, I do know that he always files on the last day.

2. He isn't raising any money. He was sitting on $27,000 before he loaned himself the $165K giving him a cash on hand of $190K, more than enough to run a decent campaign, however he likes to hire the big D.C. consultants. I heard that Axelrod (Obama's campaign manager) did his mayoral campaign. If that is the case he will need more money than that.

3. Why stake the whole campaign himself when he definitely has the capability to raise that amount of cash...........

or is that just seed money for a larger campaign?

We will see on Tuesday when filing closes.

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Going the Distance Hillary v. Obama Part I

"I'm not a member of any organized party. I'm a Democrat."
--Will Rodgers--
The nomination as it stands today, is Obama's. As long as he stays competitive, in Pennsylvania and wins the rest of the states he should win, he will walk into the convention with the most votes (Florida and Michigan notwithstanding), most delegates and most states won.

So the question remains is why is Hillary Clinton doing this? What does she have to gain?

Some would say the Presidency. Yet the question remains is, at what cost? Hillary is staying in the race and is ready to slice and dice Obama into little bits until her crew bolstered by the media looking for a story will try to rip him to shreds in hopes that something damaging enough will surface and torpedo the Obama juggernaut.

This situation is untenable and cannot go on all summer. Something has got to give. What it is will be one of the following (in no particular order):
1. Superdelegate Vanguard: Al Gore, John Edwards, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Jimmy Carter et al come out early to end this for one or the other.
2. Hillary loses Pennsylvania, possible but not likely.
3. Hillary and the Media and the Republicans can find better dirt than Obama's pastor (btw where's Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton when a black preacher is being slimed??? not enough money to be made, if you don't know I'll address this in a later posting.)
4. Obama bombs, they find something irreparably damaging that kills his candidacy.
5. This drags on, and the time comes for Obama to give up the high road and come out swinging, and the winner of the slugfest is the nominee.

More posts to come.