Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Villa NOT running for Senate!

State Rep Tom Villa is NOT running for the 5th District State Senate Seat as I guessed earlier. So the question is what IS he running for? He has $190K in the bank....

Let's run through some scenarios:

1.) Villa, the notorious prankster, could just not be running for anything, it all could be a big joke! However, $190K, of which $165K of his own money is a lot of work and money lost in accrued interest for a joke. This is the least likely scenario in my book.

2.) I think Mr. Villa is going to use that cash as seed money for a larger campaign. But what could he run for? Let's look at what we know:
A. He is 63 years old.
B. He comes from one of the longest standing political dynasties in St. Louis City Politics.
C. He has been President of the Board of Alderman and has run unsuccessfully for Mayor.

Take these into consideration and we see a man who has been successful in politics has been an Alderman, State Representative, Majority Whip and Floor Leader in the State House, ran for Treasurer, President of the Board of Alderman and failed in a bid for Mayor. Since he is 63 years old, how many campaigns does the old boy have left in him, not many, unless he is related to John McCain. So for one of his last campaigns what is Tom going to run for? State Senate is a moderate promotion, but most likely he will still be in the minority? His pension is probably set and being a State Senator isn't that much a promotion. So what does Tom do?

Why not pull a big prank, keep any white candidates out of the Senate Race, keep the seat black, earn some goodwill in the black community, who is not that much of a fan of Mayor Slay these days and run for Mayor. Think about it, what black candidate is going to run against the mayor? Lewis Reed, not enough cash right now and he just got in as President of the Board. Mike McMillan, word is Mike wants a coronation rather than a streetfight to win room 200.

So Tom Villa runs for Mayor, hurts the mayor in his base in South City and wins the North Side as the Not Slay guy running for Mayor. The only question is can Mike McMillan restrain himself from running in a race between two southside politicians? No matter what, I think Tom Villa is going to run for Mayor.

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