Sunday, July 6, 2008

Democratic AG Race Prediction

The 2008 Democratic Primary races in Missouri are considerably much more tame than our last Presidential year primary with Bob and Claire duking it out. The biggest fireworks we will see this year for Democrats is the race for Attorney General. I am sure that my analysis of this race is neither groundbreaking or dynamically different than others. I predict Chris Koster will win the Democratic Nomination for Attorney General in Missouri. Chris Koster is the former Republican State Senator of Cass County (just south of Kansas City).

here is Koster's First Spot:

I believe that Koster wins because of money. Running statewide requires a lot of money to put your name, story and message in front of the voters. There is no doubt Koster has that, having raised well over one million and on his last report, legislative district committees, which are allowed to contribute up to ten times the legal amount and spend ten times the legal amount in-kind, had already in-kind bought $250K worth of TV media. I really don't forsee Margaret or Jeff Harris having much more of a media buy than that amount.

This means that Koster is going to be up sooner (he's up now) and with more points than the others. I really just don't forsee Margaret or Jeff Harris having enough money to gain critical mass on TV and Koster wins by default that the electorate knows more about him than the others. In another post I will also posit a less likely scenario where Koster does not win.

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